Recent data analysis reveals a significant downward trend in transgender and non-conforming gender identification among American college students, according to research conducted by Dr. Eric Kaufmann of the University of Buckingham. The study, which examined multiple datasets from major youth surveys, shows transgender identification dropping from approximately 7% in 2023 to below 4% by 2025 among university students.
The research indicates that elite academic institutions are leading this decline, with notable examples including Andover Phillips Academy, where rates decreased from 9% to 3%, and Brown University, which saw a reduction from 5% to 2.6%. The study also found that non-binary identification has approximately halved across various datasets between 2022 and 2025.
Dr. Kaufmann’s findings demonstrate that the decline extends beyond gender identity into sexual orientation categories, particularly affecting queer, pansexual, asexual, and bisexual identifications. However, gay and lesbian identification rates have remained relatively stable at 3-5%. Heterosexual identification has shown a recovery, reaching approximately 77-82% across major datasets by 2025.
A particularly telling aspect of the research reveals that current college freshmen are showing lower rates of bisexual, trans, and queer (BTQ+) identification compared to seniors, suggesting a continuing downward trajectory in these identification patterns. This represents a reversal from 2022-23 when the trend was moving in the opposite direction.
The study explored potential explanations for this marked shift. While political beliefs, religious affiliations, and conservative values remained stable throughout the 2020s, improved mental health emerged as a partial factor. The research noted decreased levels of anxiety and depression among students correlating with lower rates of trans, queer, and bisexual identification.
However, mental health improvements alone don’t fully explain the trend. The study found that the decrease in anxiety and depression occurred across all groups, including LGBT individuals, and mental health improvements preceded the sexual and gender identification shifts by approximately one year. Furthermore, the reduction in mental health issues was observed within trans, bisexual, and queer groups at similar rates to other demographics, indicating that improved mental health didn’t necessarily lead to changes in sexual orientation identification.
Dr. Kaufmann’s analysis suggests that the decline in trans and queer identification patterns more closely resembles the natural fading of a social trend rather than being directly tied to changes in political beliefs or social media usage, though mental health improvements played a contributing role.
The data was compiled from several reputable sources, including FIRE, HERI, Brown Daily Herald, Andover Phillips Academy, CCES, GSS, and CDC YRBSS, providing a comprehensive view of these demographic shifts. The research indicates that while certain non-conforming sexual identities are declining sharply, traditional sexual orientations have seen a resurgence in identification rates.
This trend reversal marks a significant shift in gender and sexual identity patterns among young Americans, particularly in academic settings. The comprehensive nature of the decline, especially its prominence in elite educational institutions, suggests a broader cultural shift rather than isolated demographic changes.
The findings present important implications for understanding contemporary youth identity trends and may influence future
discussions about gender and sexual identity in academic and social contexts. As this pattern continues to evolve, it will likely prompt further research into the complex interplay between mental health, social trends, and identity formation among young Americans.