Fresh trade data analysis from Goldman’s research team, spearheaded by Patrick Creuset, reveals robust global economic performance despite heightened U.S. trade restrictions and mounting uncertainty in international commerce. The analysis employs an innovative
high-frequency dataset that combines IMF Portwatch and UN Global Platform information, tracking over 90,000 commercial vessels and generating more than 25,000 data points weekly.
The near-real-time monitoring system, which operates with
approximately a one-week delay, demonstrates that global trade expansion has moderated to 3% year-over-year in Q3, down from 4% year-to-date. However, markets outside the United States continue to display resilience, even as U.S. import volumes experienced a decline in August.
China’s manufacturing sector stands out as particularly strong, with exports climbing 5% compared to the global average of 4%. Trade patterns indicate increasing flows toward emerging economies in Latin America and Africa, while European markets are importing more Chinese goods but reducing their exports to China, a trend supported by euro strength against the yuan.
In ocean freight markets, Q3 growth is tracking at 3%, with notably strong performance in Asia-Europe and North-South trade routes. U.S.-related shipping is expected to underperform, with further weakening anticipated through year-end due to frontloading and inventory trends. The implementation of USTR service fees targeting Chinese-built fleets in October could introduce additional import costs and complexities. Container rates are projected to continue declining toward year-end, influenced by decreasing demand, increasing supply, and unfavorable seasonal factors.
Air freight has demonstrated unexpected resilience, posting 3% year-over-year growth quarter-to-date through August, with stable rates. This performance possibly reflects stronger capacity management compared to ocean shipping, along with sustained demand for technology shipments. However, the sector is expected to soften in Q4 due to well-maintained inventory levels, ocean overcapacity, and the recent termination of U.S. global de minimis exemptions on August 29.
European road transport shows signs of improvement, with German truck traffic increasing 0.4% year-over-year quarter-to-date through August, marking the first positive movement since early 2022. The commencement of German infrastructure and defense stimulus programs suggests Q3 2025 could represent a positive turning point in the cycle.
These findings contradict earlier predictions from various media outlets suggesting that increased U.S. tariffs would severely damage the global economy. Instead, the data indicates continued economic resilience and adaptation to new trade conditions, with no evidence of imminent economic collapse.
The comprehensive analysis includes detailed observations across multiple transport sectors, providing insight into regional variations and sector-specific trends. While U.S. trade faces certain headwinds, the global economy continues to demonstrate adaptability and growth potential, particularly in emerging markets and alternative trade routes. The shifting patterns suggest a realignment of global trade flows rather than a systemic breakdown, with different regions and sectors showing varying degrees of resilience and adaptation to changing economic conditions.