The traditional approach to military wargaming is rapidly becoming obsolete in an era dominated by artificial intelligence and autonomous systems. As warfare evolves toward algorithmic decision-making and robotic platforms, defense organizations must fundamentally reimagine how they simulate and prepare for future conflicts.
Current wargaming practices often rely on outdated methodologies, with participants gathering around physical maps and moving pieces while making subjective decisions. This analog approach fails to account for the revolutionary changes occurring in modern warfare, where forecasts suggest robotic systems could comprise up to one-third of military forces by the 2030s. Ukraine’s annual drone production approaching 2.5 million units exemplifies this shifting paradigm.
The challenge extends beyond mere technological adaptation. Many defense professionals continue to view wargaming through an outdated lens, focusing solely on human strategy while overlooking the crucial role of autonomous systems and AI-driven operations. This perspective becomes increasingly dangerous as warfare transforms into a complex interaction between human decision-makers and algorithmic processes.
Digital solutions already exist to modernize wargaming. Advanced simulation environments can model everything from force deployment to logistics and legal compliance, allowing commanders to test strategies in real-time with comprehensive digital tracking. However, resistance to change persists within the defense establishment, with some practitioners maintaining that wargaming should focus exclusively on ideas rather than outcomes.
This resistance contradicts the evolving expectations of military leadership. While General Eisenhower might have relied on manual logistics planning in 1945, today’s commanders require sophisticated digital interfaces providing dynamic updates and AI-enhanced forecasting. Despite this need, EUCOM and NATO continue to depend heavily on traditional tools rather than implementing integrated decision-support systems.
A new definition of wargaming is essential to bridge this gap. Rather than viewing it as merely a strategic exercise, wargaming must be redefined as a comprehensive method for exploring conflict across strategic, operational, and tactical levels, incorporating both human decision-making and system-level interactions within a digital environment.
The stakes of this transformation are significant. Failing to modernize wargaming risks misguiding crucial decisions about force structure and resource allocation. More critically, it could lead to fundamental misunderstandings about the nature of future conflicts. The battlefield of 2030 demands a simulation approach that recognizes both the enduring importance of human judgment and the growing influence of algorithmic warfare.
The human element remains central to warfare, but it no longer operates in isolation. As militaries increasingly deploy autonomous platforms and AI-driven systems, the speed, scale, and
unpredictability of combat have fundamentally changed. Traditional reliance on intuition and experience, while valuable, proves insufficient when confronting complex interactions between thousands of autonomous systems and sensors.
This evolution requires a decisive shift from analog to digital wargaming methodologies. Modern simulations must account for both human decision-making and the algorithmic processes that increasingly shape the battlefield. This isn’t about replacing human judgment but rather enhancing it with tools that reflect the reality of modern warfare.
The path forward requires embracing a hybrid approach that combines traditional strategic thinking with advanced technological
capabilities. Success in future conflicts will depend on understanding both human and machine elements of warfare, and wargaming must evolve to reflect this new reality. The time for modernization is now, as the battlefields of tomorrow will not wait for outdated methodologies to catch up.