Military analysts and China observers are closely monitoring Beijing’s upcoming annual military leadership appointments, traditionally announced before Army Day on August 1st, amid growing speculation about Chinese President Xi Jinping’s grip on power within the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).
Recent developments have heightened interest in this year’s military reshuffle, following the unexpected death of Xu Qiliang, former vice chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC), on June 2nd. This follows a pattern of high-ranking military officials facing various fates, including arrests, investigations, and disappearances.
Particularly noteworthy is the absence of He Weidong, one of two CMC vice chairmen, who has not been seen in public since March 11th following the National People’s Congress closing ceremony. Reports from Beijing suggest He, considered one of Xi’s closest allies, may be under investigation.
These developments have led some analysts to suggest that Zhang Youxia, the other CMC vice chairman, may have assumed control of China’s military forces, potentially diminishing Xi’s authority. The CMC’s membership has dwindled from seven to four following the removal of Li Shangfu and Miao Hua in previous years.
Since Xi’s rise to power 13 years ago, his anti-corruption campaigns have targeted numerous military officials, ostensibly to consolidate his position. However, the past year has seen an unprecedented purge of 12 senior People’s Liberation Army (PLA) officials, including former defense ministers Li Shangfu and Wei Fenghe, along with multiple force commanders.
Reports indicate that approximately 101 high-ranking military officials have been imprisoned, including 97 at the general level. Su Tzu-yun, a researcher at Taiwan’s Institute for National Defense and Security Research, notes that many of these purged officials were originally appointed by Xi himself, suggesting a possible power shift within the military hierarchy.
U.S.-based analyst Tang Jingyuan suggests that the replacements for these positions have largely come from Zhang Youxia’s faction, indicating a potential transfer of military control away from Xi. However, Shen Ming-shih, another Taiwanese defense expert, cautions that confirming such power struggles is challenging due to the opaque nature of CCP internal politics.
The upcoming Fourth Plenary Session of the CCP’s Central Committee will be crucial in determining new military appointments. Sources suggest varying dates for this meeting, with some indicating late August and others pointing to mid-October. The timing and nature of these appointments could provide insights into the current power dynamics within the CCP leadership.
China affairs commentator Chen Pokong emphasizes that the military reshuffle will likely reveal which faction holds the upper hand in the party’s internal struggles. The difficulty in reaching consensus on personnel arrangements suggests intense behind-the-scenes conflicts among top leaders.
These developments come at a time of apparent instability within China’s military leadership structure. The extensive purges and reshuffling of positions have created uncertainty about the chain of command and raised questions about the future direction of China’s military establishment. The outcome of this year’s appointments could have significant implications for both internal party dynamics and China’s military posture on the global stage.