The United States faces a critical challenge to its naval supremacy as China rapidly expands its maritime capabilities, according to national security experts. A former Naval intelligence officer warns that the disparity between U.S. and Chinese naval power has reached alarming levels, threatening America’s position as the dominant maritime force.
Recent Congressional reports reveal that China’s navy currently commands more than 370 battle force ships, with projections showing growth to 435 vessels by 2030. In comparison, the U.S. Navy maintains approximately 290 ships, with modest plans to reach 316 by 2053. More concerning is China’s overwhelming advantage in shipbuilding capacity, which exceeds America’s by a factor of 230.
The scale of China’s maritime expansion is unprecedented. In 2024 alone, Chinese shipyards produced more commercial vessels by tonnage than the entire U.S. shipbuilding industry has manufactured since World War II ended. China’s robust shipbuilding infrastructure includes over 150 yards, with eight major facilities capable of constructing large warships, carriers, and amphibious vessels simultaneously.
The U.S., meanwhile, relies on just seven private shipyards, many of which face significant challenges including aging infrastructure, workforce shortages, and production delays. Congressional oversight reveals that virtually all major U.S. naval shipbuilding programs are behind schedule and exceeding budgets.
China’s maritime influence now extends well beyond the Indo-Pacific region, with established naval bases in strategic locations like Djibouti and growing presence in ports across Pakistan, Cambodia, and Equatorial Guinea. Supporting this expansion is China’s merchant fleet – the world’s largest – which can be rapidly converted for military purposes during conflicts. The U.S. merchant fleet has diminished to fewer than 180 international trading vessels, severely limiting military transport capabilities.
To address this maritime crisis, experts advocate for a comprehensive modernization program comparable to the Marshall Plan. Key
recommendations include a $20-30 billion investment over ten years to modernize U.S. shipyards, establish new facilities, and rebuild supply chains. Additionally, a coordinated Maritime Workforce Initiative is needed to address the critical shortage of skilled workers through partnerships with educational institutions.
Fundamental reforms to naval procurement processes are also essential. The current cost-plus contract system has proven inefficient and expensive. Advocates suggest adopting simplified, modular designs to accelerate production and enhance fleet adaptability. Incentivizing domestic commercial shipbuilding could maintain consistent workforce levels while providing auxiliary military capacity when needed.
Naval leadership has privately expressed concerns that within five years, the U.S. Navy may struggle to effectively counter Chinese aggression in the Western Pacific. Without immediate and decisive action, America risks losing both its naval advantage and its ability to influence global maritime affairs.
The situation demands urgent attention and substantial resources. While recent initiatives like the SHIPS Act and presidential executive orders acknowledge the challenge, they fall short of the comprehensive response required. The future of American naval power – and by extension, national security – depends on swift, decisive action to rebuild maritime capabilities and restore U.S. shipbuilding dominance.
This maritime crisis represents more than a military challenge; it threatens America’s fundamental position as a global superpower. The nation’s history of naval supremacy, which proved crucial in past conflicts and deterrence, must be preserved through bold, immediate action to prevent the emergence of an era dominated by Chinese maritime power.