Recent trade data from the U.S. International Trade Administration reveals significant variations in how different states rely on imports from Canada and Mexico, which together accounted for 28% of total U.S. goods imports in 2024. The data has gained renewed attention following Donald Trump’s implementation of 25% tariffs on both nations and subsequent retaliatory measures from Canada.
Montana emerges as the state most dependent on North American trade, with a striking 93% of its imports originating from Canada and Mexico. This high percentage is predominantly attributed to Canadian trade, which comprises 92% of Montana’s total imports. The state’s strategic location sharing a border with Alberta, combined with its three oil refineries, makes it a natural destination for Canadian crude oil, with petroleum products constituting 76% of its Canadian imports.
The next tier of import-dependent states includes Maine, North Dakota, and Vermont, each hovering around 70-72% reliance on Canadian and Mexican goods. Their high percentages reflect their geographical proximity to Canada and the resulting strong trade relationships.
In the southern United States, Texas and Oklahoma stand out with notable import dependencies of 49% and 56% respectively. Oklahoma’s case mirrors Montana’s, with half of its imports sourcing from Canada, primarily in oil and gas, which makes up 79% of its Canadian imports. Texas, as the nation’s second-largest state economy, shows a different pattern, with Mexican imports dominating at 40% of total imports. The state’s primary imports from Mexico consist of motor vehicles and parts (23%) and computer equipment (22%).
At the lower end of the spectrum, several states show minimal reliance on North American imports. Hawaii reports the lowest dependency at 6%, while New Jersey and Florida demonstrate relatively low percentages at 11% and 14% respectively. States like California and New York, despite their large economies, maintain moderate levels of Canadian and Mexican import shares at 16% and 15% respectively.
The data underscores the complex trade relationships between U.S. states and their North American neighbors, with geography playing a crucial role in import patterns. Border states generally show higher dependencies, particularly those sharing boundaries with Canada. The oil and gas sector emerges as a key driver of these trade
relationships, especially in northern states importing Canadian petroleum products.
The implications of these trade patterns become particularly significant in light of recent tariff implementations. States with higher dependencies on Canadian and Mexican imports face potentially greater economic impacts from these trade policy changes. This is especially true for states like Montana, where the vast majority of imports come from Canada, and Texas, where Mexican imports play a crucial role in its automotive and technology sectors.
These findings highlight the interconnected nature of North American trade and the varying degrees to which different regions of the United States rely on their continental neighbors for goods and resources. The data suggests that any significant changes in trade policy or international relations with Canada and Mexico could have
disproportionate effects across different U.S. states, with some regions facing considerably more exposure than others to trade policy fluctuations.