Recent diplomatic developments between Syria and Azerbaijan have sparked significant concern in Iran, as the two nations move to strengthen their bilateral ties. The landmark meeting between Syrian interim President Ahmad al-Sharaa and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev in Baku marked a substantial shift in regional dynamics, culminating in a significant agreement for Azerbaijani gas exports to Syria through Turkish territory.
The diplomatic engagement has raised eyebrows in Tehran, particularly due to reports of concurrent Israeli-Syrian discussions occurring on the sidelines of the Baku summit. These developments have intensified Iranian anxieties about an emerging alliance between Azerbaijan, Turkey, and Israel that could potentially threaten Iranian interests in the region.
The relationship between Damascus and Baku represents a dramatic departure from previous Syrian foreign policy under Bashar al-Assad. Both leaders explicitly criticized Assad’s former “unfriendly policy” toward Azerbaijan, emphasizing their commitment to fostering stronger bilateral relations. The gas export agreement stands as a concrete manifestation of this new partnership, aimed at addressing Syria’s ongoing energy challenges.
Iranian media outlets have expressed particular concern about the potential movement of Syrian fighters to the Caucasus region. The pro-reform newspaper Arman-e Melli suggested that part of the emerging Syria-Azerbaijan relationship could involve the transfer of
Syria-based fighters through Turkey to Azerbaijani territory. This development is viewed as potentially destabilizing for areas bordering Iran and Russia, with possible implications for the broader alliance between China, Russia, and Iran.
Conservative Iranian publication Farhikhtegan suggested that Sharaa, who previously led the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) faction under the name Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, might be facilitating this fighter redeployment to satisfy U.S. demands for the removal of foreign fighters from Syria. The paper proposed that Azerbaijan could serve as either a staging ground for further regional infiltration or a settlement area, particularly in regions like Karabakh.
Adding to Iranian concerns, Israeli media outlet i24NEWS reported that Israel and the United States had orchestrated the Baku meeting between Israeli and Syrian officials specifically to signal their position to Iran. Iran’s state-affiliated Jam-e Jam newspaper interpreted this as evidence of neighboring countries collaborating with Israel against Iranian interests.
The growing defense partnership between Azerbaijan and Israel has been a particular source of tension. Azerbaijan’s decision to establish an embassy in Tel Aviv in 2023 and its expanding military cooperation with Israel have heightened Iranian suspicions. These concerns reached a peak during recent conflicts when Iranian President Masud Pezeshkian demanded investigation into allegations that Israeli drones had entered Iranian airspace through Azerbaijani territory during a 12-day conflict that ended on June 24.
While President Aliyev has strongly denied these accusations and assured that Azerbaijan would never allow its territory to be used against Iran, Tehran remains skeptical. Iranian media has advocated for a two-pronged response to these developments, suggesting both diplomatic engagement and security measures. This includes
strengthening ties with regional allies like Armenia and Russia while maintaining a firm stance against what Iran perceives as provocative actions from Baku.
These developments represent a significant realignment of regional relationships, with Iran viewing the emerging Syria-Azerbaijan axis, supported by Turkey and Israel, as a potential challenge to its regional influence and security interests.