Alexandra Prokopenko, currently serving as a fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center and formerly an advisor at Russia’s central bank, has issued a stark warning about impending food price increases stemming from the current energy crisis. According to her analysis shared on social media platform X, the virtual closure of the Strait of Hormuz has initiated an energy supply disruption that will transform into a more significant and lasting problem centered on fertilizer availability.
Prokopenko’s assessment indicates that the Strait of Hormuz situation has created a supply chain disruption whose effects will materialize in food costs within a six to nine month timeframe. She suggests that Russian President Vladimir Putin stands to gain more from long-term strategic advantages than from immediate petroleum revenue increases.
This warning aligns with recent alerts from institutional financial analysts who have been tracking the developing fertilizer crisis for several weeks. The disruption is anticipated to create widespread impacts throughout global food production systems. UBS analyst Claudio Martucci recently highlighted how the energy sector shock is spreading into fertilizer markets, indicating that agricultural supply chains will face serious challenges later in the current year.
Bloomberg’s macro strategist Simon White drew historical parallels, noting that food price shocks during the 1970s actually exceeded oil price disruptions in severity. He emphasized that food inflation contributed more substantially to overall consumer price index measurements throughout that decade than energy costs did, following both the Arab oil embargo and the Iranian revolution.
The immediate market impacts are already visible. Urea prices have climbed between 25 and 30 percent since late February. Gulf region producers have invoked force majeure clauses on agreements with South American and Asian buyers. Approximately one million metric tons of fertilizer remain physically trapped in Gulf locations. The force majeure declarations represent complete contract cancellations rather than temporary delays, compelling buyers to urgently secure
alternative sources.
Russia’s position in this developing crisis is particularly
significant. The country serves as a major global supplier of ammonia and nitrogen-based fertilizers. Together with Belarus, Russia controls roughly 40 percent of worldwide potash market supply. Russia and Qatar jointly dominate urea exports to the United States, with Russia annually exporting over 45 million tons of fertilizer products, predominantly to developing nations. Agricultural importers in Nigeria and Ghana have already begun placing advance orders with Russian suppliers for third quarter deliveries.
The crisis is expected to unfold in three distinct phases. The initial wave, currently underway, involves fertilizer price increases and contract disruptions. The second wave, projected for the third and fourth quarters of 2026, will feature reduced crop planting and diminished agricultural yields, with the most severe impacts occurring in African and South Asian regions where advance purchasing proves difficult or impossible. The third wave, anticipated in 2027, will bring food price inflation to retail markets in countries dependent on agricultural imports.
Fatih Birol, who leads the International Energy Agency, warned last Friday that energy distribution in the Gulf region will require at least six months to return to normal capacity levels, though the timeline could extend considerably longer. He characterized the current situation as potentially the largest energy shock in history.
The ongoing Middle East conflict threatens to reignite global food inflation if the Hormuz shipping route remains impaired for an extended period. Sulfur, various chemicals, fertilizers, and diesel fuel constitute essential inputs across numerous industries and products.
Prokopenko’s analysis concludes that while an immediate food crisis is not occurring, significant disruptions should be expected later this year. She suggests individuals consider developing personal food production capabilities through gardens and poultry keeping as protective measures against potential supply chain failures. For those beginning such preparations, starting with seed acquisition represents a practical first step.