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Fading Frontlines: How Russia’s Military Edge in Ukraine is Set to Diminish by 2025

The Russian military’s numerical advantage over Ukrainian forces is expected to wane by late 2024 and into 2025, according to Michael Kofman, a respected military analyst specializing in Russian affairs. In a recent interview with Intelligencer, Kofman, who serves as a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, outlined his assessment of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.

While Russia has maintained pressure on Ukrainian defenses despite suffering significant losses, Kofman believes the Kremlin is now facing “very significant constraints” in its war effort. He
anticipates that Russia’s battlefield advantage will likely diminish as winter approaches and continue to decline into 2025.

Kofman cautioned that this does not mean Russia will imminently exhaust its supplies of equipment or manpower. However, he contends that Moscow cannot sustain its current offensive tempo indefinitely. This potential shift could provide a glimmer of hope for Ukraine, which has been contending with a gradual but relentless Russian advance in the eastern regions, largely attributed to Moscow’s willingness to expend vastly more resources in terms of both personnel and military hardware.

One factor contributing to this projected decline is Russia’s depletion of its Soviet-era weaponry stockpiles. Kofman explains that while Russia has been replacing its substantial equipment losses with older Soviet-made weapons, even these reserve stocks are not infinite. He notes that Russia’s current rate of equipment production is significantly lower than the rate at which it is losing materiel on the battlefield.

As a result, Kofman observes that the Russian military has been forced to adjust its tactics to minimize losses, which in turn reduces its ability to achieve significant operational breakthroughs.

Another challenge facing Russia is the sustainability of its recruitment efforts. The Kremlin has been offering unusually high financial incentives to attract new soldiers, with sign-up bonuses reportedly rivaling those offered by the U.S. military. However, Kofman believes that the Russian government cannot indefinitely maintain these elevated levels of compensation and benefits for recruits.

The UK Defense Ministry has reported that Russia is likely
experiencing its highest daily casualty rate since the war began, with losses increasing significantly each year. British officials estimate that the Kremlin may lose around 1,000 troops per day throughout the coming winter, following record daily losses in May and September.

These heavy losses are occurring as Russia intensifies its efforts on the eastern front, laying siege to key towns such as Vuhledar and Pokrovsk in the Donetsk region while attempting to reclaim territory in Kursk that was previously seized by Ukraine.

The protracted nature of these battles is evident in the case of Vuhledar, where fighting has persisted for over a year. Even as Russian forces advance to the outskirts of Pokrovsk, Kofman predicts that it will take more than just a few weeks of combat to capture the town.

Kofman’s analysis has implications not only for the frontline situation in Ukraine but also for Russia’s wartime economy. Russian President Vladimir Putin has reoriented the nation’s economy to heavily prioritize defense manufacturing since the war’s outset. Recent draft policy documents suggest that Russian authorities plan to continue allocating approximately 40% of the overall national budget to military and national security expenditures.

While Russia reported GDP growth of 3.6% in 2023 following this economic pivot, despite international sanctions, it remains uncertain how long Moscow can maintain this strategy. Some economists warn that if the war concludes or production slows, the defense sector may no longer be able to sustain the Russian economy, potentially leading to a recession.

Meanwhile, Ukraine’s supply of equipment and manpower is also not guaranteed, as it relies heavily on Western support for crucial weapons and faces challenges with its own mobilization efforts. In response, Kyiv has been working to develop its domestic defense industry, focusing on the production of missiles, artillery systems, and various types of drones for land, sea, and air operations.