Global markets displayed cautious movement Tuesday as investors braced for the United States presidential election, with U.S. equity futures showing modest gains while volatility indicators suggested ongoing uncertainty. The highly contested race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump has reached its culmination as Americans head to polling stations across the nation.
Early voting has already seen unprecedented participation, with approximately 78 million ballots submitted before election day, representing nearly 50% of anticipated total votes. The first polling stations opened at 6:00 am Eastern time on the east coast, with initial exit poll data expected to emerge around 5:00 pm Eastern from the National Election Pool.
Market indicators reflected heightened investor caution, with the CBOE Group’s VIX index edging up 0.2% to reach $21.93, suggesting potential daily fluctuations of roughly 1.4% or 80 points for the S&P 500. The bond market showed relative stability, with 10-year Treasury yields holding at 4.303% and 2-year rates at 4.171%.
The U.S. dollar index experienced a slight decline of 0.12%, settling at 103.756, extending its recent downward trend of approximately 0.6% since late October – a movement that analysts have connected to polling data indicating improved prospects for Vice President Harris’s campaign.
Pre-market trading indicated positive momentum, with S&P 500 futures pointing to a 10-point increase at the opening bell, while Dow Jones Industrial Average futures suggested a 65-point advance. The tech-heavy Nasdaq was positioned for a 58-point gain, supported by strong performances from industry giants Nvidia and Tesla.
Notable market movements included Palantir Technologies, which experienced a significant 13.4% surge in pre-market trading following strong third-quarter earnings results and an upgraded full-year revenue outlook. Boeing shares also gained momentum, rising 1.9% after successful labor negotiations resulted in strike resolution through a new contract agreement with the machinists’ union.
International markets reflected similar caution regarding the U.S. election outcome, with investors particularly concerned about potential delays in vote counting or result disputes that could extend uncertainty beyond election week. European markets showed mixed performance, with the Stoxx 600 gaining 0.04% and London’s FTSE 100 advancing 0.32%.
Asian markets demonstrated more robust performance, particularly in China, where speculation about potential economic stimulus measures from the National Party Congress drove shares to month-long highs. The MSCI ex-Japan index rose 0.37%, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 posted a 1.11% gain following its return from a holiday closure.
The market’s response reflects broader concerns about the election’s impact on economic policy, international relations, and regulatory frameworks. With polls showing a tight race and the possibility of delayed results, investors appear to be positioning themselves for potential market volatility in the coming days.
The combination of record early voting turnout, heightened market uncertainty, and global economic considerations has created a complex environment for investors navigating the immediate aftermath of this pivotal election. Market participants remain particularly focused on how the eventual outcome might influence monetary policy, fiscal decisions, and broader economic direction in the world’s largest economy.