Apple’s stock saw a slight uptick in early trading despite remaining down for the month, as prominent Wall Street analysts offered contrasting viewpoints on the tech giant’s prospects ahead of its fourth-quarter earnings report this week.
The company, currently valued at approximately $3.52 trillion, has experienced a 0.7% decline in share value over the past month, with investors closely monitoring the reception of its iPhone 16, which launched in September. The new smartphone is positioned as a gateway to Apple’s artificial intelligence features, branded as Apple Intelligence, which the company plans to implement across its 2.2 billion device ecosystem in coming years.
Various market research organizations, analysts, and industry observers indicate that demand for the iPhone 16 is either matching or slightly underperforming compared to its predecessor, the iPhone 15. Consumers appear to be taking a wait-and-see approach regarding Apple’s AI strategy and associated software updates.
KeyBanc Capital Markets analyst Brandon Nispel highlighted concerning trends from major U.S. wireless carriers’ third-quarter reports. Verizon, AT&T, and T-Mobile showed a 9% year-over-year decrease in upgrade rates, suggesting potential challenges for Apple’s domestic sales.
JPMorgan’s Samik Chatterjee reported that delivery wait times for iPhone 16 models have decreased eight weeks post-launch, particularly for the premium ‘Pro’ versions. While maintaining an ‘overweight’ rating and $265 price target, Chatterjee expects Apple to surpass expectations for the September quarter but anticipates holiday quarter guidance below consensus estimates.
The company is set to announce its fiscal fourth-quarter results after market close on Thursday, with analysts projecting earnings of $1.55 per share on $94.4 billion in revenue.
Wedbush analyst Dan Ives maintains a more optimistic outlook, predicting strong performance in both the September quarter and holiday period guidance. Ives, who has set a $300 price target with an ‘outperform’ rating, suggests this iPhone cycle could be
unprecedented, noting that approximately 300 million iPhones globally haven’t been upgraded in over four years.
The company plans to release its first AI-related software update, Apple Intelligence 18.1, this week, featuring limited new
capabilities. A more comprehensive version, 18.2, is expected before year-end.
According to Ives, Apple could achieve record-breaking iPhone sales exceeding 240 million units in the current fiscal year, driven by what he describes as an “AI-driven upgrade cycle.”
The company’s shares indicated a premarket price of $231.91, representing a 0.22% increase. The upcoming earnings report will be closely watched for insights into iPhone 16 demand and the company’s AI strategy implementation timeline.
The mixed analyst perspectives reflect broader market uncertainty about Apple’s near-term growth prospects, particularly regarding consumer appetite for its latest flagship device and the potential impact of its developing AI initiatives. While some experts see challenges in maintaining previous sales momentum, others anticipate a potential surge in upgrades driven by technological advancements and the promise of enhanced AI capabilities.
The confluence of these factors makes Apple’s upcoming earnings report and guidance particularly significant for investors seeking clarity on the tech giant’s trajectory in an increasingly AI-focused market landscape.